End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration

 Peter Valentinovich Turchin (born in 1957) is a specialist in the field of population dynamics and mathematical modelling of historical dynamics. He led several major environmental projects and made a particularly important contribution to the development of mathematical models of centennial social and demographic cycles. It was P. V. Turchin who first proposed the concept of cliodynamics.
Peter Turchin in End Times warns society about some key social and political trends that herald a decade of civil unrest and strife, war, and poverty. The fundamental issues underlying today's social issues have three sources: elite overproduction, popular immiseration as a whole, and the inability of governments to meet their obligations.
These causes are leading modern society to its inevitable end times, which are always followed by new cycles of political integration and disintegration.

Peter Turchin. End Times / Translated from English by V. Zhelninov. Editor Olga Koroleva. Editor Natalia Nikitenko. — Moscow: AST Publishing House, 2024.